Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

European Cold Wave Intensifying As Death Toll Rises To 79

2012-02-01T17:02:00.002Z

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Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

European Cold Wave Intensifying As Death Toll Rises To 80

People have been reportedly found frozen to death in their homes in Serbia while homeless across Ukraine are freezing to death on the streets. Temps continue falling and the reach is driving deep into Italy where forecasters expect the coldest weather in over 30 years

Sudety Mountains, Poland, January 2012 (Courtesy from BBC)

The Cold Hard Facts

- Schools have closures in northern Greece with temps of -16C (3F)

- Kneja, Bulgaria plummeted to a record -29C for 2nd straight day

- Eastern Bosnia reports temps down to -31C

- Schools and Colleges in Kiev, Ukraine were shut on Wednesday due to severe cold

- The Black Sea has frozen along the Romanian coast

Europe freeze: Heavy snow across continent
BBC

Europe's cold snap claims more lives
BBC

UK's weekend weather battleground
BBC

Deep snow brings Istanbul to halt
UPI

Cold Won't Just Dissappear, It Will Take Time For Atlantic Air To Erode It, Snow Is Possible In Areas of UK

There is a lot of uncertainty over the upcoming weekend weather. The reason being is that while some models are showing a push of Atlantic air pushing into the UK which kicks out the cold back east, others show the cold lingering on into next week.

Models do have a tendency to remove cold too quick and often they not only kick out the cold, but they often don't see just how cold that low level air is and where it's positioned and this can be critical.

In my opinion, I think this weekend, at least Saturday anyway will be cold everywhere with highs only reaching 2 or 3C for many across Scotland and northern England, away from the immediate coast. The next 36 to 48 hours will bring more establishment of the cold with colder nighttime lows which mean during the day, the atmosphere will struggle to warm the air more so than in recent nights. This means the cold deepens of course. With cold air denser than warm, I suspect that as an Atlantic front approaches, this will force further sinking of the low level cold, explaining why it may still be very cool despite models showing warmth, the models may simply not see the cold air at the low levels remaining.

This persistency in the cold near the surface and warmer air perhaps riding up and over top of the cold may set the stage for allowing moisture and warmer air in, despite this cold and this would suggest that as rains fall into the cold lowest mile of the atmosphere, it would turn to snow. I believe that snow is of greater probability than rain at this time although rain is likely along western fringes and the isles where it is naturally warmer and where it's breezier but once this air and moisture crosses into colder air, I believe snow will fall and not rain.

Next Couple of Nights Are Very Cold Even Near North Sea Coast of Low Countries

The intensity of the chill covering Europe is bringing some fairly low temps even to typically milder coastal areas of the Low Countries. Note the GFS 2 metre temp map showing the -8C line close to Amsterdam and the -12C line close to Brussels tonight, same will be for tomorrow night following another sub-freezing day.

This arctic chill is certainly grabbing headlines deeper into Europe but I think it's important to notice the intensity of cold even over Belgium and the Netherlands where seaside towns may dip to -6C (20F) while just 5-10 miles inland, we could see -7 to -9C (19-16F) or colder. Amsterdam may get near to -9C by morning while I think Brussels may hit -11C. Given the absense of snow cover, that is impressive cold for cities this far west. Far eastern Belgium and Holland, some communities may approach -17 or -18C tonight and tomorrow night if conditions remain perfect.

Baltic Sea To See Extensive Icing Up As Core Of Cold Sweeps across Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Scandinavia Next Few Days

Baltic States To Suffer Coldest Air Yet With Tallinn, Riga and Minsk eyeing -30C in coming nights, bitter cold looks to ease over southeastern continent

Mild of Next Week May Not Be So Mild If Latest Model Run Is Anything To Go By. More Substantial Winter Weather Looming For UK Next 7-10 Days

Models have been hinting at a warmer spell next week across the UK-Ireland and even Low countries but the latest run interestingly backs away from the warming slightly, especially over southeastern Britain and over mainland western and southwestern Europe, holding the chill deep into Spain, we'll need to monitor this over the weekend and see with each new run whether this backward trend holds.

What I do feel more firm on is, I think we're looking at a cold weekend rather than mild.

However, even if we do see a decent warmup from this week's chill, the question is, how long will it last? If you notice the latest runs, the deep, severe cold appears to reload over eastern Europe and may bring a fresh surge of bitter cold back west across Europe like we're currently seeing.
I am confident that if we do see warming, it will be short lived and what may follow could bring us worse than what we're currently seeing. I believe a blocking pattern will setup in the next 10 days which could bring a very interesting mid to late February period for both Western Europe and the Eastern US.

The next surge of cold may well have greater snowfall chances and I hope to see some widespread snowcover followed by arctic high pressure which may bring us right back to December 2010. Who knows.. Only time will tell.

US Latest

Blizzard To Follow Remarkable Warmth

Yesterday saw an all-time record warm 69 degrees at Omaha, Nebraska for January, will be dramatically followed by heavy, windblown snow on Friday!

Some Eastern Records from Tuesday
Courtesy of Matt Noyes New England Weather Annalysis

In the Northeast, alone, records were set in a number of cities:

Washington, DC - 66 degrees (old record 65, from 1993)
Georgetown DE - 63 degrees (60, 1974)
Islip, NY - 55 degrees (51, 1988)
Bridgeport, CT - 54 degrees (53, 1974)
Martha's Vineyard, MA - 53 degrees (52, 1974)
Ithaca, NY - 58 degrees (56, 1947)
Roanoke, VA - 68 degrees (68, 1974)
Lynchburg, VA - 68 degrees (68, 1916)
Taunton, MA - 55 degrees (ties 55, 1974)
Binghamton, NY - 54 degrees (ties 54, 1974)
Atlantic City NJ 63 (ties 63, 1988)

Record warmth swarms the Eastern United States
MATT NOYES, NEW ENGLAND WEATHER ANNALYSIS

Blizzard Eyes Colorado, Nebraska, NW Kansas Thursday Into Friday

Blizzard to Target Colorado, Nebraska, Northwest Kansas
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Violent Storms to Threaten Texas, Oklahoma
ACCUWEATHER.COM

From Epic Cold to Blizzard Conditions in Alaska
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Alaskan volcano could erupt, disrupt international air travel
CNN

Canada Latest

Wild, Cold and Snowy Over Atlantic Canada!

Winter grips Atlantic Canada
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Let the melt in southern Ontario begin
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Australia Latest

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 37
LOW: 29

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

People Die As Severe Cold Shivers Eastern Europe, Eastern US Bakes In Record Warmth

2012-01-31T16:25:00.003Z

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Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

European Cold Wave Continues Deepening, Kills At Least 45 People

Following a major 1-2 foot blizzard, all but crippling many communities across Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia we have now seen the arrival of fierce and deadly cold pull in directly from Siberia and Kazakhstan where temps in the capital, Astana read a bonechilling -40C/F this morning, Striong east winds blowing around a half a hemisphere-sized Arctic high is transporting super cold air into Europe.

At Sjenica, Serbia, the low this morning plunged to -29C (-20F), Rovno, Ukraine -28C (-19F), Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine -28C (-18F)

Freezing: Poland, Serbia, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have all been hit by temperatures as low as -26C. The Romanian village of Catelu pictured here during a blizzard (Photo Courtesy of Daily Mail)

Deaths in Ukraine and Poland in freezing Europe weather
BBC

Europe Cold Wave Turns Deadly
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Coldest Nights of Winter For UK Wednesday and Thursday Nights

Temps widely fall to between -5 and -10C. Thursday will likely be the UK's coldest day with highs possibly struggling to freezing point from Inverness to Birmingham.

While the coldest air will be overhead by tomorrow and into Thursday, with near UK-wide clear skies and light winds, temperatures will plummet to the coldest levels of the season so far. I'm expecting lows to widely fall to between -5 and -10C with the odd cold hollow anywhere from the North-Central Highlands to Shap, Cumbria to Benson, Oxfordshire where a -12 to -14C wouldn't surprise me. One major factor however is missing in completing the MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS and that will be the lack of snowcover and thus temps, though cold, won't be down to what they may well have been had there been a widespread reflective blanket of snow..

Near Countinent Cities May Fall to -10C!

Such cities as Copenhagen, while may fall towards -15C in coming nights, we may see lows drop below -10C in both Amsterdam and Brussels, even down Paris. This weekend could also see the bitter cold covering the continent reach central Spain. Yes, even Madrid may dip to -10C or colder...

Cold Doesn't Stop Having Reached the Med Sea, No, Cold and Even Snow May Fall Over North Africa!

Altas Mountains of Morrocco, Algeria may see substantial snowfall

Cold spreads west and south
METEO GROUP

Fresh snow accumulations forecast between Tuesday 31 January and Sunday 05 February.

(Courtesy of Meteo Group)

Lots of Uncertainly Over Upcoming Weekend

Back to ‘battleground Britain’ for weekend’s weather
MET OFFICE

US Latest

Record Warmth Bathes Central, Eastern US

Another Burst of Warmth for Winter of 2011-2012
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Northeast Record Highs in Weird, Warm Winter
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Too Little In Lower 48, Too Much In Alaska?

Did Alaska Tie Or Even Break The All-Time Cold Record of -80F?

A reliable recording station at Jim River, located less than one mile from Prospect Creek which is home to the all-time coldest reading in Alaska and the United States recorded a temperature on early Sunday morning of -79F before Dying!

Was U.S. Record Low Temperature of -80 Broken in Alaska?
JESSE FERRELL'S BLOG, ACCUWEATHER

Bitter cold records broken in Alaska – all time coldest record nearly broken, but Murphy’s Law intervenes
WATTS UP WITH THAT

One Wild Ride - Alaska

This photo was taken during the first week of January after a major snowstorm hit Alaska with record snows. Twitter user shannynmoore tweeted, "In case you wonder what driving in 21 feet of snow looks like... more on the way." She's right. South Alaska is on tap for even more snow in February. (Twitter User: shannynmoore)

Canada Latest

Heavy Snow Blankets Atlantic Canada

Snow and ice causes slick roads in the Maritimes
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Australia Latest

Heavy Tropical Rains Continue

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 83° at Harlingen, TX
LOW: -21° at Clayton Lake, ME

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 45° (7.1°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 21° (-6.2°C) at Pershore (Worchestershire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 39°
LOW: 31°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Models Suggest Temps Near -40C/F In Southeast Europe In Coming Nights, Warmth Spreads Across USA

2012-01-30T15:50:00.001Z

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Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

The Arctic Wolf Begins To Roar Across Europe As Temps Continue Falling

BREAKING: Snow flurries/showers are being reported across Southeast England, Aberdeenshire just now, are you seeing any.. Be sure to upload any snow photos to the Facebook page and they will get shown here!

Coldest Week of Winter So Far For UK/Low Countries

Daytime highs will struggle to 2-4C UK-wide through Thursday and perhaps freezing by late this week but factor in an easterly wind blowing generally 5-15mph will make it feel closer to -2 to -7C widely during the day.

The latest GFS 2 metre temperature forecast shows temps at night dipping to -11C in Paris and -8 or -9C in Amsterdam while the UK widely dips to between -5 and -10C. If conditions are good enough with crystal clear skies and no wind in a few of the cold hollows of England and the Highlands of Scotland given the cold air mass aloft, I wouldn't be surprised to see a -15C low show up, however, the lack of snow may limit this depth of cooling.

Little precipitation is in the forecast this week across the UK due to massive high covering half of the Northern hemisphere.

Current Pattern Is Non-Favourable For Widespread UK Snowfall

This current setup, although very much cold enough, isn't conducive for heavy snow. No it's not because the air is too cold but more it's too stable as a high pressure system dominates and therefore skies should be generally fair and settled albeit breezy out of the east.

It's important to note that although the pattern overall isn't good for 'widespread' snowfall, we are seeing it snow in places but you'll find eastern areas (east of the Scottish Mountains/Pennines have greatest chance of snow as an increasingly cold wind blows off the continent, across the North Sea and across the UK, likely carrying snow showers across eastern shores. These will likely die out once reaching central areas. A slight covering is possible tonight from Kent to Caithness if moisture can get picked up as winds blow over the North Sea.

Eastern snow chances could increase as we progress through this week as I believe the temperatures over the western side of the continent grow increasingly colder with temps in Belgium and the Netherlands falling towards -10C even in Brussels and Amsterdam and perhaps near -17 or -18C in far inland areas of these countries. If winds can blow over to the UK from this intensity of cold, then I believe more pronounced snow showers may occur and thus bringing perhaps several inches to favoured areas up the eastern side of the UK. More intense bands of snow blowing in off the North Sea may also carry snow further west and like we saw in November/December 2010, parts of even the western Central Belt, over by Glasgow saw 6-8 inches pile up over a one week period all thanks to a strong and bitter east wind blowing off a very cold continent and across a still relatively warm North Sea.

The big difference between then and now is the North Sea is in a mid-winter state, a good deal colder and therefore, those snows we saw in 2010, we're pretty exceptional..

UNCONFIRMED REPORTS SUGGEST 10 PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM COLD ALREADY ACROSS EUROPE!

GFS FORECASTED 2M MIN TEMPS OVER NEXT 72 HRS

The GFS 2 metre temperature forecast for parts of southeast Europe has been incredible today with predicted lows pushing towards -40C/F. Very impressive depth of cold and if this happens which there's nothing to suggest it can't given the intensity of discharge coming out of Siberia, records are sure to fall widely across this region.

Check out these forecast lows....

BULGARIA -36C
UKRAINE -35C
SERBIA -32C
BOSNIA -26C

HEAVY SNOW OVER ALPS AND MOUNTAINS OF BALKANS AS MED SEA LOW DRAWS MOISTURE UP INTO COLD AIR

With a vast reservoir of very cold air covering a large area of Europe by midweek, a system developing and pushing north into Italy over the next 36 hours may bring yet more heavy snow to the Alps as well as over parts of Italy and eastwards into the Balkans. I'll be interested to see how low the snow levels go and whether it reaches the coast.

The above chart shows the precipitation potential during Wednesday across Italy and surrounding areas.

Wintry weather finally reaches the UK
BBC

US Latest

Unusual January Warmth Spreads Across Lower 48 But One Must Keep Eye To Alaska!

This week is going to be another one of those balmy weeks of winter 2011-2012 across the Lower 48 with temps surging towards 30 above normal in areas of the Plains.

Just take a look at the below chart.

This Week

Now, while you my fret if your a snow and cold weather lover! don't be and the reason is, take a take at the below chart.

Next Week

Also take a look at the below chart.

What's Alaska's frigid cold of this month got to do with us here in the Lower 48, you ask?

Well often, major cold waves for the Lower 48, often start off mild with major, bottled up cold over Alaska and if models in the medium to long range are correct, then we are expecting to see the dam (trough) over Alaska and northwest Canada break from this weekend onwards as a ridge builds up into Alaska, removing this frigid air.

When you drive a ridge up into Alaska, more often than not, that brutal air mass only goes one way, and that's south, southeastwards into the Lower 48.

If my long rang predictions are correct and several others are too, then we're looking at a much colder period during February and I have concerns about a major arctic outbreak mid-month as we have seen unusually cold weather up across the Last Frontier, so much so, this month may end up one of the coldest on record in Fairbanks with the coldest high since 2000 on Saturday of -42F. There have also been two lows in a row of -50F (-50 and -51F), not seen since 2006.

Models show a deepening eastern trough while blocking forms over top of NA, Greenland, trapping cold pools underneath. It's worth noting the severity of cold that may be heading for the Lower 48.

Warm Ending to January and Start to February

THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Montana's Chinook Winds Allow Unusual Winter Activities
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Warmth Surges in the Plains, Spreads East
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Another Burst of Warmth for Winter of 2011-2012
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Another Mild Surge to Impact the East by Midweek
ACCUWEATHER.COM

More Stormy Weather for Pacific Northwest
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Firefighters battle North Pole house fire in 60-below-zero temperatures
DAILY NEWS MINER

Image courtesy of Daily News Miner

Canada Latest

Snow squalls and harsh winds wallop Ontario
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Heavy snow piles up in Atlantic Canada
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Australia Latest

Better Late Than Never, Sydney Tops 30C On Monday

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 81° at Fort Myers, FL
LOW: -17° at Land O Lakes, WI

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 51° (10.8°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 21° (-6°C) at Shap (Cumbria)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 39°
LOW: 31°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Europe, Like Alaska, Is Set For Coldest Weather In Years, Fairbanks, AK Plunges To -51F

2012-01-29T20:05:00.001Z

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Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

Severe & Record Breaking Cold To Sweep Europe Through This Week Reaching UK By Late Week

Daytime highs will struggle to -5C across the interior of Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark, -10C across parts of northeast France and through Germany down across the Alps and -15C to -20C across Poland, Russia down into the Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria as the vast cold pool sees a fresh injection of Siberian air.

GFS 2 meter temp forecast for Thursday morning over Poland

Temperatures at night under clear skies, light winds, widespread snowcover and a frigid arctic high overhead will allow the temps across a large part of interior Europe to fall below -25C with several countries including parts of Germany, Poland, Russia, the Baltics, Scandinavia, Ukraine may drop easily plummet to -30C or colder.

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Winter Arrives To Kolding, Denmark

These photos are courtesy of my facebook friend Michael Czuba Olsen and he tells me that they've seen 11cm of snow since Friday. Winter finally reaches Denmark!

Skiing Weather
BBC

US Latest

Alaska Cold Spell Reaches New Lows With Fairbanks Plunging to 51 Below Zero

January may be coldest on record for Anchorage
DAILY NEWS MINER

Harshest Cold Spell in Years for Fairbanks, Alaska
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Another Mild Surge to Impact the East by Midweek
ACCUWEATHER.COM

More Stormy Weather for Pacific Northwest
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Canada Latest

Rideau Canal Skateway fully opens to the public
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Carnaval de Quebec opening postponed due to weather
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Asia Latest

Winter Is Normally Tough In Kazakstan But This Year It's Especially Snowy!

Here are a few photos kindly uploaded to the Facebook page by John Badrick who's parents live out in Atyrau, Kazakstan.

He wrote.

Its getting colder here in the South West of England and hopefully snow on the way. But nothing compared to where my parents live- day time temps struggling at -17 to -20 in Kazakhstan North East side of the Caspian sea- Dad walks to work over the frozen Ural river every morning. It gets cold here but this year they have had unusual amounts of snow.

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 86° at El Cajon, CA
LOW: -18° at Fosston, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 49° (9.3°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 24° (-4.4°C) at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 41°
LOW: 34°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Europe Cold Means Business This Week Coming, UK May See Snow More Widely By Tomorrow

2012-01-28T17:53:00.000Z

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Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

European Cold Wave Starting to Take It's Course, Seen Back On Christmas Day

In tomorrow's post I shall provide you with forecasted 'coldest high's for the upcoming week across European cities...

PARTS OF UK TO SEE LOW LEVEL SNOW ON SUNDAY

ICE WARNING: Light rain, drizzle, sleet and where the ground is damp, may lead to icing potential tomorrow with temps near or below freezing and a cold ground. Use caution when driving and walking tonight and tomorrow

With stronger pressure heights sitting over the UK thanks to a huge and intensifying Scandinavian upper level ridge of high pressure, this will hold back an Atlantic front from pushing across the UK tonight and tomorrow. However, the western fringes will see less strength in heights and thus the boundary will manage to cross Ireland/N.I bringing wet and relatively mild weather with a southerly breeze, however, cold air has been gradually building over the UK mainland in a modest fashion and therefore with the front bringing moisture into Wales and the southwest of England, we're likely to see rain turning to snow. Snowfall starts off first over the higher ground but as the air cools as the rains fall the precipitation is likely to turn to snow through tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. More central and eastern areas should stay largely dry with bright or sunny spells. Temps remain cool at 2-4C in north, 4-6C in south.

Watch out if you live in Devon, Cornwall, possibly the west Midlands up through Wales where we could well see a coating to perhaps an inch or so of snow.

Elsewhere across the UK, we're likely to see another frosty night from central and eastern Scotland down through Central and eastern England. Western areas is always most likely to see cloudier skies associated with this front. Even here (western England north of Midlands and western Scotland), overnight drizzle may either turn to ice on cold ground or may turn to light snow showers and so a light coating can't be ruled out away from Wales, southwest England and parts of the Midlands.

UK braced for cold snap
BBC

Cold weather hits Europe
BBC

US Latest

It May Be Mild Now And In Coming Days, But Push a Ridge Into Alaska And That Brutal Cold Will Head Straight For Lower 48!

Up until now, those of you who love the snow and cold weather, this winter has been somewhat of a dissapointment right?

The above chart from AccuWeather sums it up well with the winter so far with milder air more dominant than cold overall, however, it hasn't been all doom and gloom as we have seen a few decent shots of arctic air spill south from Canada thanks to a ridge piercing the dominant Alaskan trough which has allowed an open door for this very cold air to spill south into Canada and the Lower 48. The couple of short lived, modest cold spells first hit the Rockies with a deepening trough, but because of the still-progressive nature of the pattern, the arctic air has'nt been allowed to stick around but more hit and then kick out east as ridging has always wanted to build in behind, pushing the cold pool out.

This frustrating, teasing pattern has meant a vastly different snow year from last year and the year before. Of particular note, check out the little snow for the Big cities of the I-95.

Yes, there has been plenty of wet weather but the lack of cold has meant lack of snow whereas the past two winters saw an abundance of cold, arctic air and a persistent storm track which brought multiple big hitting snowstorms.

So, what's the difference this year to the past two?

The two above charts show the reason for the 'lack of winter' not only for the East, Midwest but for the majority of the northern hemisphere.

For cold and snow to have big impact on the USA, the Arctic Oscillation (below chart) must generally be negative, notice it's not only positive but it's strongly positive and it has been persistent. That has meant a stronger polar vortex over the pole, and a strong jet across the mid-latitudes. Like in Europe, a strong Pacific/Atlantic jet means persistently stormy, wet and mild with strong oceanic flow bringing mild air across the continents and the bottling of all the arctic air well to the north.

For the East to see cold and more importently (for some), snow.. the above chart which looks at the North Atlantic Oscillation and this, like the AO needs to be negative. When it's negative, it tends to allow the building of high pressure (blocking) east of the US and over the North Atlantic and Greenland, by doing so, this blocks the general west-east flow at the mid-latitudes, forces warmth north into the arctic and cold, arctic air south into the mid-latides. What is key though is that the position of this high over the North Atlantic and Greenland means troughiness in the Eastern US and also over Western Europe. By driving a deepening trough into the Eastern US, it opens the door to arctic air (if the AO is negative too) and so, the cold air becomes available, secondly, the positioning of the trough is also key and the jet needs to dip south near to the Gulf in which it can tap energy for storm formation and with warmth and Gulf moisture involved and a jet roaring north UP THE EAST COAST, this often allows strong and powerful Nor'easter development. The past two winters has seen this perfect setup unfold and therefore major, record-breaking snowstorms resulted!

DO WE SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE FAVOURABLE PATTERN DOWN THE ROAD?

Well, I believe so and i'll explain why.

The computer models for the best part of 2-3 weeks now has seen an eventual flip from positive into negative in both AO and NAO. This if trends are persistent would tell me that a change in the largescale pattern eventually was likely.

The AO has gone negative and we're seeing the evidence of this with the cold building westwards into Europe. At the same time, I am keeping a close eye on Alaska. Noticed it's getting colder and colder? Fairbanks neared 50 below zero this morning and there was temps around 60 below elsewhere in the state.

Models have showed a return to ridging up into Alaska and my concern for the Lower 48 in perhaps 10 days from now is that the cold that's just getting colder across the Last Frontier may all of a sudden get replaced by a Pacific hopse of warmth and all that brutally cold air heads doe southeast into the Plains and eventually the East.

The NAO has been forecasted to go negative for sometime now and therefore with a southward plunge of brutally cold Alaskan air, possibly intensified further by a cross-polar Siberian injection, we could not only see the return of cold, locked in, over the Plains and East but it could be a major arctic outbreak which sparks a major lake-effect event before the freezing over of the Lakes as the cold intensifies but also we may see a series of East coast Nor'Easters with one big daddy which shuts down the major cities.

Finally, you notice the dip into negative on both the AO and NAO, we're seeing the effects now with cold surging across Europe and with the building of severe cold over Alaska, the stage is set for the 10-20 day period which I believe will turn very interesting come mid-February.

Alaska Is BONECHILLING COLD!

Another frigid morning in Interior Alaska; ice fog advisory issued
DAILY NEWS MINER

Clipper Snow for the Great Lakes and Northeast
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Another Mild Surge to Impact the East by Midweek
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Asia Latest

5.5 Earthquake Hits Central Japan
FIRSTHAND WEATHER

Canada Latest

More snow targets Ontario, Quebec
THE WEATHER NETWORK

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 84° at Lake Forest, CA
LOW: -19° at Stanley, ID

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 38°
LOW: 23°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Japan gets Struck by 5.2 Magnitude Earthquake 45 miles West of Tokyo, Europe Growing Colder

2012-01-27T13:44:00.002Z

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BREAKING NEWS: A 5.2 magnitude Earthquake has struck 45 miles west of Tokyo, Japan!

Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe & Long Range Latest

High Pressure Brings Fine, Dry, Settled Saturday to UK, Snow Potential for Sunday?

Fog/cloud hug tops of the Campsie Fells this afternoon as morning cloud gives way to sunshine

(Photo courtesy of Mark Vogan)

Today will see the last of the intense, fast moving showers push southeastwards across England and Wales which gives way to widespread clearer, calmer skies. Those conditions combined with a colder air mass in place will set the scene for a colder night ahead than of late across much of Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern and central England, only the south or southeast may hold onto those showers through tonight.

High pressure building in sets the stage for a bright, beautiful, seasonably cold day on Saturday for most. Highs will range from 4-6C across Scotland down through the Midlands, 7-8C in the south.

POSSIBLE SNOW FOR UK ON SUNDAY?

By Sunday, the pressures drop enough over the western UK which will allow the stalled front offshore to the west to push in, however, with cold air in place over the UK, it's possible that a period of snow preceeds a turn to milder air but there is a lot of uncertainly over the scenario justnow. Shall keep you posted tomorrow.

Injection of Siberian Air To Make Europe A Whole Lot Colder
FIRSTHAND WEATHER

While the UK sees Atlantic weather trying to push in from the west, it's slamming up against resistence from the south, north and east all thanks to high pressure which will continue building over Scandinavia and Russia high stopping that eastward progression of Atlantic fronts. Pressures slowly break down in the west and therefore should allow the front to nudge further east into the west of the UK by Sunday which may provide some snow to areas.

The deep trough and pool of cold air covering all of Europe except the west is continuing to force the jet stream well to the south over the Mediteranean bringing wet and windy weather across far southern Europe, inland from the coast and especially over the higher terrain, any precipitation will fall as snow.

SIBERIAN AIR SET TO DEEPEN COLD OVER EUROPE NEXT 5-7 DAYS

Between the high over northwest Russia and an upper low northeast of the Black Sea, these steering winds around these systems will draw west, southwestwards a finger of high octane Siberian air which will work it's way through Europe during next week and looks set to bring some extremely cold temperatures to Russia west and southwest thorugh Poland, Germany and eventually reaching the low countries and the UK-Ireland, as well as that, this arctic/Siberian air will reach the Med coast and I believe it possible, that if we see moisture in the air, we could very likely see some snowfall down to sea level along the Med coast.

Coldest Air in More Than a Year to Grip Eastern Europe
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Serbia declares snow emergency

An emergency was declared following severe wind, snow and cold in the last few days across Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania as national infrastructure including schools, transport were shut down.

Deep snow in Serbia

(Photo courtesy of 24.com UR)

European Model Persistent In East With Intensifying Cold, More Uncertainty In West, But Why?

While models are physically seeing 1) the cold pool already in place over the east, 2) the high pressure centre over northwest Russia 3) the strong upper low north of the Black Sea and 4) the severe cold over western Siberia, this allows a persistency for predicting the intensification of this already cold air over eastern Europe in the next 5-7 days. The high and low act like wheels in transporting Siberian air west, southwest and ultimately charging the cold pool already there. Read More

US Latest

Messy, Very Mild Morning Along Eastern Seaboard

Friday is a real messy one up the East Coast thanks to the presence of a cold front which is drawing cooler air in on the backside from the Midwest/Ohio Valley and pullung warm, moist air north along this front, so, while it's a soaking morning and early afternoon, winds are blowing strong and temps have been rising into the unusually mild upper 50s to low 60s up along the Philadelphia to New York City stretch of I-95. Just north of NYC lies a warm front and to the north of this, the air is cooler, thus explaining why NYC is in the upper 50s today while Boston won't get out of the mid-40s. Further north into New England we see a rain of rain, freezing rain and snow up over northern New Hampshire and Maine.

Tonight and into tomorrow should see relief with the front kicking out into the Atlantic and a much drier, cooler Saturday returns but back west into the Ohio Valley and across the Great Lakes, snow showers while cause some travel issues in prone areas surrounding the Lakes.

Note the very mild air drawn due north up the I-95.

Major Trough to Establish itself in the East
FIRSTHAND WEATHER

Expert Video: Storm Blasts Through East, Cold Air Coming
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Slippery Coating of Snow Marks Midwest Cold Push
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Wonderful Weekend for Much of the South
ACCUWEATHER.COM

January 2012 Breaks Heat, Cold, Snow and Tornado Records
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Dissapointing Snow Totals since Dec 1st

Australia Latest

Category 2 Cyclone Iggy Spins Off Northwest Coast

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 89° at Fort Lauderdale, FL
LOW: -14° at Stanley, ID

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 51° (10.5°C) at Swanage (Dorset)
LOW: 19° (-7°C) at Kinbrace (Sutherland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 40°
LOW: 28°

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

Southeastern Europe Slammed By Blizzards, Biting Cold, Temps Fall to -45C in N. China, Severe Weather Threat Renewed In Bruised Alabama

2012-01-26T17:37:00.002Z

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LONG RANGE VIDEO NOW AVAILABLE (SCROLL DOWN)

Today's Global Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

Eastern Europe Beginning To Get Slammed Hard By Winter

This was the amazing scene near Bucharest, Romania from one of my followers Nicorel Nicorescu @Nicorel.. Thank you!

Blizzard Rages on in Southeastern Europe
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Blizzards hit eastern Europe hard
CBS NEWS

Central, Eastern Europe Turning Colder With More Heavy Snow in SE While UK Becomes Battle Ground This Weekend With Cold Drifting West And Warmth Drifting East

European City Forecast for Thursday 26 Jan, 2012

Oslo -1C (snow), Stockholm -3C (cloudy), Helsinki -5C (cloudy), Berlin 0C (cloudy), Warsaw -6C (cloudy), Moscow -11C (sunny), Kiev -10C (prtly cloudy), Bucharest -4C (snow), Sofia -3C (snow).

This weekend features temps 5 to 10C below normal over the eastern continent with a polar low bringing heavy snow and blizzards to the Balkans, Bulgaria and Romania. UK will see fronts trying to push into western areas but will be halted by the building Scandinavian high, a battle between lower pressure and higher pressure kicks in.

Over the upcoming weekend, while we see the cold air grow colder over the eastern and central continent with Moscow and Kiev, which has already been cold, they both will struggle to reach -12 to -15C this weekend while even Warsaw sees highs of only -6 to -8C, Berlin -2 to -4C, it's all thanks to a building high pressure system over Scandinavia which is feeding the cold, continental air across Europe, helped by a large, potent polar low centred over the southeast. The clockwise flow around the high, counterclockwise flow around the polar low will result in feeding this cold with even colder Siberian air late this weekend and through next week and so these highs mentioned above may end up relatively mild compared to what may be looming. That is a scary prospect.

UK BECOMES BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN MARITIME AIR AND CONTINENTAL AIR, COULD THIS TRIGGER WEEKEND LOW LEVEL SNOWFALL?

So, while the cold and snowfalls continue out east, the UK will see not a bad next few days and weekend as the pressure is strong enough from off Europe that will hold back frontal systems that want to progress east from off the Atlantic. The weekend looks interesting as it will looks as though the pressure decreases enough in which at least one front will be able to cross Ireland and into the western UK, the thing is, as the air is modestly cold, this moisture brought in by the front may spark some snow, even to low levels.

MODELS SHOW INTENSE SIBERIAN AIR OVER EUROPE NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE THEY COLD ENOUGH?

Models are often too progressive with cold air and with the density of cold, low level air, they often loose sight of it's intensity. My point is, that although the models show an intense westward push of brutal Siberian air from Asia into Europe through next week, I have a real concern over the fact these models are simply not cold enough and therefore historic temperature records may be challenged next week, especially over the eastern side of the continent.

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Asia Latest

Severe Cold Begins Southward Assualt Through China

City hit by extreme -45 degrees Celsius temperature in north China
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Freezing rain causes water shortage in Guizhou, SW China
THE WEATHER NETWORK

US Latest

Concerns Over Severe Weather Return to Alabama Again Today

VIDEO: Severe Weather Swipes the Southeast
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Alabama Severe Storms Times Two This Week
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Northeast Rain, Snow, Slush On the Way
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Ice Extends Farthest Into Bering Sea in 20 Years

Ice in Bering Sea threatens crab fishery
ANCHORAGE DAILY NEWS

Australia Latest

Major Flooding Continuing To Hammer Top End, Searing Heat Waves Over WA!

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 86° at Chatsworth, CA
LOW: -9° at Farson, WY

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 52° (10.9°C) at Dunkeswell (Devon)
LOW: 26° (-4°C) at Altnaharra (Sutherland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 42°
LOW: 29°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Severe Weather Causes Problems Across Texas Today, Brisbane Experiences Heaviest Rainfall in Decades, Brutal Cold Takes Aim At Europe Next Week

2012-01-25T17:36:00.003Z

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BREAKING NEWS: SEVERE WEATHER BRINGS DAMAGE TO SE TEXAS, TORNADO WARNINGS IN PLACE AROUND GREATER HOUSTON AREA

**NEW LONG RANGE VIDEO NOW AVAILABLE (SCROLL DOWN)

Today's World Weather Headlines

Breathtaking Northern Light's Display over Fairbanks, AK

Europe Latest

Following a warm, stormy start, old man winter looks to roar back with a vengence, looking frightfully cold throughout Europe next week!

European City Forecast for Thursday 26 Jan, 2012

Oslo -1C (snow), Stockholm -1C (snow), Helsinki -5C (cloud), Berlin 0C (prt cloud), Warsaw -3C (snow), Moscow -10C (prt sun), Kiev -10C (cloudy), Bucharest -5C (snow), Sofia -4C (hvy snow).

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While the trough over the coming days grows and pulls increasingly frigid cold air off Siberia and all the way down to near the Mediteranean coast, this will keep both the storminess going throughout southern Europe but may likely trigger more heavy snowfall over the mountains of northern Greece, through the Balkans and into Turkey and given what I'm seeing with the latest models, some surprise snowfall along the coastal resorts along the Med coast wouldn't shock me in the coming days as the cold crosses the mountains and out over the sea.

As for the western continent, little real change as of yet as yet another Atlantic system pushes across Ireland and the UK bringing firstly mild air, wind and plenty of rain (esp in north) which will be followed by a colder northwesterly flow.

While Norway and Sweden are now under the cold blanket, any of this moisture will sharply turn to snow and so significant snows can be expected across any part of Scandinavia if this moist flow makes it thro0ugh the much drier, colder atmosphere over Scandinavia.

The low countries of Belgium, Netherlands remain in a similar pattern to the UK but further east into Germany, well their at the cross roads between cold continental air to the east and maritime air to the west. Off and on snow will impact Germany while it's all snow and below freezing temps further east into Poland.

Expect more heavy snow for parts of the Alps.

Once we get through this weekend, well it appears that the current pool of cold will grow stronger and stronger and the temps above for tomorrow are likely to be warm compared to next week. I am concerned as to just how nasty next week may turn out to be when considering widespread potentially crippling snowstorms and extreme cold in which records may well tumble widely over eastern and central Europe.

Hockey rink roof collapses in Slovakia
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Davos, Switzerland Gets Buried In Biggest Snowfall In 66 Years

We're seeing a mega turnaround from basically no snow back in Nov-Dec to Too much.. Is the flip from warm to cold coming next?

A snow-coverd road in Davos on Jan. 24, 2012

Davos Hit by Heaviest Snow in 66 Years as Orange Gnomes Race to Clear Up
BLOOMBURG WIRE

Swiss officials coordinate Davos Forum amidst heaviest snow in 66 years
THE WEATHER NETWORK

What Supports Next Week's Brutal Turn to Colder Across Europe?

The most recent stratospheric warming event which was strongest and over top of the pole, indicates for the first time, a proper flip to negative in both Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Ensemble model runs have been consistent with this flip and models are also now converging on the idea (also a first), that very cold air will build into Europe from Asia, filling Europe through next week.

Given the severity of this cold these current model runs are pointing to at this time, would suggest a major arctic outbreak Europe may not have seen in many years. Beating any cold seen last year or the year before. Western Russia looks really brutal when going by the most recent run of the ECMWF. My concern at this point in time is that the cold that may flood the continent, may be worse than the models are showing and that is a worrying thought for such cities as Moscow, Warsaw, Berlin and many others.

Check out the latest run off the ECMWF and Canadian off Policlimate.com where it shows this flip.

US Latest

More Severe Weather To Contend With As Bitter Cold Takes Brief Back Seat

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING: TORNADO WARNINGS AROUND GREATER HOUSTON TODAY!

NEW VIDEO: Flooding Storms Moving through Houston
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Severe weather rolling through Southeast Texas
KHOU.COM

Weather Expert: Tornado Warnings Near Houston
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Severe Storms for Mississippi, Alabama Thursday
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Focus of Severe Weather shifts east through Louisiana tonight, Mississippi, Alabama on Thursday

Warming Winds in Southern California
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Stormy Pattern Helps Boost Sierra Snowpack
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Australia Latest

Brisbane experiences it's heaviest 24-hour rains in decades with flooding across Queensland/NSW, Heat wave continues in Perth and WA

Rain easing overnight, but warnings of more to come
BRISBANE TIMES

Heatwave has beach patrols on high alert
PERTH NOW

VIDEO: Month's Worth of Rain in 24 Hours
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Africa Latest

Cyclone Funso Remains Powerful Category 4 storm

Deadly Funso Maintains Category 4 Hurricane Strength
ACCUWEATHER.COM
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 88° at Harlingen, TX
LOW: -5° at Eagle Nest, NM

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 54° (12.1°C) at Hawarden (Flintshire)
LOW: 33° (0.7°C) at Eskdalemuir (Dumfries and Galloway)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 51°
LOW: 39°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Severe weather threatens Texas, Bitter cold covers northern, eastern Europe, Perth, Australia bakes in potentially record heat wave

2012-01-24T16:55:00.000Z

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Today's Weather Headlines

GLOBAL NEWS: Huge solar storm to shower Earth with radioactive particles
CNN

US Latest

Severe Weather Threat Turns to Texas Today, Mild In East

The Potential For Severe Storms Erupting In Texas Tomorrow!!!
FIRSTHAND WEATHER

Drenching, Severe Storms Begin in Texas Today
ACCUWEATHER.COM

New Severe Weather Risk Texas to 'Bama This Week
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Warming Winds in Southern California
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Late-Week Storm, then Colder in the Northeast
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Europe Latest

Arctic Air Sweeps Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, It's Finally The Real Deal

Real cold comes to town
MOSCOW NEWS

While the next Atlantic system brings rising temps, increasing wind and heavy rain across the UK-Ireland over the next 24 hours, things are just getting colder and colder further east and north from northern Scandinavia all the way down to Ukraine and Bulgaria where highs won't top -10C on Wednesday.

Storminess continues across Greece, the Balkans, into Turkey with heavy snow, even to low levels further inland away from the Med.

While the cold expands and an air flow feeding from Siberia into eastern Europe continues and will help set the stage for what could be a stunning week of cold next week onwards. As for the UK and western mainland, the cold front associated with the current low will pull down cooler air down from Iceland bringing more wintry shower threats to mainly north. This has to be called 'cooler' given the cold building over the eastern continent in next 7 days.

Next week looks to see the advance of a severe pool of cold which a large upper level will cycle Siberian air in and help pump and blow up the cold pool over the continent. This extends westwards throughout next week bringing a sharp turnaround to proper winter to the UK and Ireland by Thursday of next week onwards. The Azores high looks to head up and over top of the trough helping block and lock this arctic pool.

Latest european run shows major cold wave next week over Europe!

Africa Latest

Category 4 Cyclone Funso Taunts African coast, should stay offshore

Image off Jesse Ferrell's page

Mozambique struggles with flooding after storms
CNN

Will Cyclone Funso make landfall?
BBC

Australia Latest

While powerful thunderstorms dump 100mm of rain in 1 hour over Dorrigo, NSW, Perth Swelters in potential record breaking heat wave

MERCURY RISING: Perth set for record breaking heatwave. Picture: File Source: PerthNow

Perth braces for record-breaking heatwave
PERTH NOW

Heavy rain causes flooding in parts of Australia's east coast
THE WEATHER NETWORK

NSW north coast braces as floodwaters rise
ABC NEWS

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 85° at Fort Myers, FL
LOW: -23° at Wisdom, MT

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 41°
LOW: 30°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Wild, Unusual January Tornado Outbreak Devastates American South, Frigid air covers Scandinavia, heading south!

2012-01-23T16:54:00.000Z

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In Today's Blog

Latest Long Range Discussion @ #LONG RANGE
Strat warming, trend towards -AO/-NAO supports latest European run showing arctic air pooling over Europe off Asia, reaching UK day-10

Today's Weather Headlines

GLOBAL NEWS: Biggest solar storm since 2005 underway, will peak Tuesday
WASHINGTON POST

US Latest

Wild, Unusual January Tornado Outbreak Devastates South killing at least 2 people

BREAKING NEWS: IT'S CONFIRMED THAT ONE OF LAST NIGHT'S TORNADO WHICH STRUCK CLAY, ALABAMA WAS AN EF3 WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 150 MPH

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

LATEST NEWS

Survivors sought after deadly storms pound South
CBS NEWS

Severe weather rakes Southeast; 2 dead in Alabama
CNN

Latest Information on Monday's Tornadoes
ACCUWEATHER.COM

OTHER NEWS FROM AROUND THE U.S

Northeast Icy and Foggy Start to the Week
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Rain, Snow Spin through California
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Late-Week Storm, then Colder in the Northeast
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Arctic blasts becoming more frequent for Lower 48 thanks to negative Arctic Oscillation

American Airlines Flight Turbulence Injures 6
ABC NEWS

Tornadoes, Taxes Coincide With Most Stressful Days of 2011
GALLUP WELLBEING

FOR FREQUENT WEATHER UPDATES, CHECK OUT THE FACEBOOK PAGE!

Canada Latest

Temps Moderate Across Canada

Parts of Ontario deal with wintery mix, temperatures on the rise
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Lack of winter in the Maritimes impacts ski season
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Powerful winds whip across BC
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Europe Latest

Colder night in store for UK with possible snow in places, Frigid air finally arrives in Scandinavia pushes southeastwards

DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS PARTS OF SCANDINAVIA INTO RUSSIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS UKRAINE WILL NOT REACH -10C (14F) ON TUESDAY, LOWS THIS WEEK WILL DIP TO BETWEEN -16 AND -25C (3 TO -13F) IN AREAS

UK-IRELAND OUTLOOK

After a generally bright, dry day throughout much of the UK with seasonal temps, this sets the scene for a mostly clear night ahead and with light winds and colder air aloft, frost will form quickly across many areas.

Expected lows tonight

Inverness -2C (28F)
Glasgow -1C (29F)
Carlisle -1C (29F)
Manchester -1C (29F)
Birmingham 1C (34F)
London 1C (34F)

Outlying areas may dip to between -2 to -4C, depending upon how long skies stay clear and winds light

POTENTIAL SNOW ARRIVES INTO EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING

During the overnight, a band a rain will push into the western UK and as this bumps up against the cold air established during the early part of the night, this precipitation may turn to snow and even at lower levels anywhere from the Central Highlands into the Central Lowlands southwards through the North of England and even into the Midlands. However, as well as this being a hit and miss type of event, especially further south through Cumbria down into the Midlands, I am not expecting much in the way of accummulation with, at best, a coating in such areas as Glasgow, perhaps 1 to at the most 3 inches over the higher routes of the Highlands (watch out on the A9 and surrounding routes), the Southern Uplands (M74 between Blackwood & Beattock Summit) and the Trans-Pennine routes (watch out on A66 linking Cumbria with Yorkshire). As for the Midlands, I don't see much more than some rain changing to a sleet mix . Anywhere which sees it snow will likely see it melt on impact with the ground. Only the odd lucky spot will see a covering I think.

During the day Tuesday, warmer maritime air will eventually raise temps following a changeover from snow to rain. Winds also increase out of the southwest and this will set the stage for a rather wet and windy Wednesday where gales may impact many areas of the UK-Ireland, especially across northern areas.

FRIGID AIR FILLS NORWAY, SWEDEN, FINLAND INTO RUSSIA SOUTHWARDS TO UKRAINE

With a persistent trough hanging over Scandinavia down into the southeast of Europe, it has been cold, been seasonal with highs generally in the -2 to -5C (28-22F) range for most.

However, a fresh push of truely arctic air is now covering Scandinavia, helped by the recent heavy and widespread snowfall which now covers all of Scandinavia and much of central and eastern Europe.

This fresh blanket of reflective white means arctic air can flow freely southwards without loosing much strength and finally, after a very mild start to winter, highs throughout Scandinavia into Russia south into the Ukraine will warm only to between -6 and -12C (21-10F) Tuesday through Thursday. Under clear skies at night, many towns and cities will cool towards -20C (-4F) with outlying, rural areas dipping into the -24 to -26C (-11 to -15F) range.

FOR FREQUENT WEATHER UPDATES, CHECK OUT THE FACEBOOK PAGE!

Australia Latest

Adelaide & Perth get extreme summer heat

Shade scramble for Australia Day scorcher
PERTH NOW

North-eastern suburbs swelter after loss of power
ADELAIDE NOW

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 84° at Crystal River, FL
LOW: -8° at Westby, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 53° (11.6°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 31° (-0.8°C) at Leeming (N. Yorkshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 39°
LOW: 32°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

UK enjoys high pressure next 2 days before more wind, rain and mild temps arrive, Severe Weather threatens American Mid-South tonight

2012-01-22T14:09:00.002Z

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BREAKING WEATHER: THE AMERICAN MID-SOUTH IS UNDER THREAT FROM SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS PM AND EVENING (MORE INFO BELOW)

NEW VOGAN'S VIEWS ON EUROPE & LONG RANGE VIDEO BELOW

Today's Weather Headlines

NEW: Northern hemisphere snow returns to above normal
WEATHERBELL.COM

Europe Latest

Beautiful Sunday and Monday for most of Western Europe as high pressure returns, all change Wednesday with next batch of wind and rain

Sunny day across Scotland as surface high builds in for the next couple of days

(Photo courtesy of Mark Vogan)

High Pressure brings beautiful sunshine for many Sunday-Monday

While a surface high pushes up from the southwest bringing more in the way of sunshine and less rain to much of the UK with only the odd shower over higher ground, it will be beautiful but remaining fairly cool but seasonal thanks to a northwesterly upper flow. Highs today and Monday will remain at around 5 or 6C across the north, 8 or 9C in south with easing winds into tonight and tomorrow which should help it feel less cool.

A low near Iceland will send wind and rain bearing fronts into UK-Ireland By Wednesday

FLOOD WARNING: DUE TO LONG FETCH SW FLOW, THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WILL LEAD TO FLOODING

This GFS precip chart off Meteogroup.com shows the long fetch sw moisture plume running along the cold front all the way from the Azores to Western Scotland. This warmer-sub-tropical direction can lead to much heavier and prolonged rains if the front moves slowly which it tends to when set up in this way.

By Wednesday, though a low will remain well to the northwest of the UK, a front slowly progresses across Ireland and the UK, evetually reaching the low countries, this will bring a return to wind, rain and milder air with temps for all bumping back up above 10C.

Upwards of 100mm is expected across the northwest of Scotland, helped by orographic influence of the mountains but if you notice, the front and flow along it is coming from a long fetch SW flow. A warmer, moister direction and this suggests heavy rains and if prolonged enough and the front doesn't move quickly, this will aid in piling up the rains up against the northwest Scottish Highlands. 100mm could end up being conservative. A similar setup, only aligned further south meant it was Cumbria's mountains which saw this and lead to exceptional flooding. The good news is, this isn't autumn when waters in which this southwest flow travelled over warmer Atlantic waters following the summertime but nonetheless, a long fetching southwest flow pointing into a mountainous area of the UK can lead to problems.

Following the southeast movement of the cold front down Britain will herald the arrival of colder air once again back out of a northwest direction Thursday-Friday.

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Latest Skiing Snow Forecast
BBC

Long Range Latest

No wonder we've seen a hemisphere-wide warm start to winter except the Far East when looking at this chart. (off Dr Ryan Maue's site). However that last gasp drop in AO has resulted in plenty of winter cold/snow for Canada/US, east/cnt Europe and Far East and actually aided in building HEMSIPHERE's snowcover above normal (remember what it was like in Dec).

Just think what a more pronounced drop could do and given the recent strat warming which is peaking now and the models suggestion of -AO/NAO, yes, we have plenty of winter left.

Yes, it's certainly been a winter where patience has been required. I urge you to keep the faith.

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US Latest

Cold weather to ease (temporarily) even across the freezing Northern states as focus turns to the severe weather threat this week

A potentially serious weather situation will evolve later this PM and especially tonight across the Mid-South region as all the dynamics are coming together with a deepening trough with cold, dry air behind, warm, sub-tropical air in front and unusually high dew point air all meeting this cross-roads of instability.

This is unfortunately sure to spark strong and eventually severe thunderstorms as the atmosphere's mixing, the strong jet and twisting and turning of the air columns will trsnition ordinary thunderstorms into supercells and these most likely will spawn tornadoes. If not, torrential rains, damaging winds and large hail will.

Large Tornado Outbreak Possible for Sunday Evening into Monday
FIRSTHANDWEATHER

VIDEO: The Set-Up for a Severe Weather Outbreak
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Severe Outbreak with Tornadoes Targets Ohio Valley, South
ACCUWEATHER.COM

The very cold air of the past few days gets erased tomorrow

Northeast Ice Threat Tonight Leads to a Mild Rain Monday
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Yesterday's high's

This morning's low's

National snowpack looking healthier than of late but unfortunately the stuff in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (except New England) will be gone in next couple of days

Saturday was a cold day with highs in the 20s and 10s for many following a cold start and this morning was even colder with widespread single digits and teens and well below zero readings across New England and Maine especially, however, a deepening trough over the midsection of the country will pump warmer air up the East Coast from the Southeast and with highs returning to the 50s, that snow, especially the thinner 1-3 inches, will grow increasingly sloppy and slushy during Monday and may be gone by Tuesday if not Wednesday!

FOR FREQUENT WEATHER UPDATES, CHECK OUT THE FACEBOOK PAGE!

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 86° at Kingsville, TX
LOW: -30° at Clayton Lake, ME

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 55° (12.7°C) at Swanage (Dorset)
LOW: 31° (-0.3°C) at Loch Glascarnoch (Highland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 44°
LOW: 38°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

First Real Snowstorm of Winter 2011-12 from Baltimore to New York City

2012-01-21T17:05:00.000Z

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Today's Weather Headlines

US Latest

First Real Snowstorm of Winter 2011-12 from Baltimore to New York City

Record snow fell at Chicago's Midway Airport with a total of 7.3 inches. As much as 9.1 inches fell at suburban Joliet, IL while further east, New York City recieved their first measurable snow of the season with 1.3 inches while Philadelphia recorded their first inch with 2.3 inches.

Below is a collection of snow totals received by AccuWeather.com through 11 a.m. EST:

Connecticut

--North Haven: 5.1 inches
--Norwalk: 3.2 inches
--Bridgeport: 2.5 inches

New York

--Upton: 4.4 inches
--Astoria: 3.1 inches
--Staten Island: 2.4 inches
--Slide Mountain: 2.0 inches
--Rochester: 1.7 inches
--New York City's Upper West Side: 3.0 inches
--New York City's Central Park: 1.3 inches

New Jersey

--West Milford: 6.0 inches
--Sussex: 3.9 inches
--Elizabeth: 3.0 inches
--Phillipsburg: 3.0 inches
--Newark: 2.7 inches
--Hackettstown: 2.4 inches

Pennsylvania

--Hookstown: 7.0 inches
--Williamsburg: 5.5 inches
--Mifflinburg: 4.7 inches
--Harrisburg: 3.8 inches
--State College: 3.7 inches
--King of Prussia: 3.3 inches
--Philadelphia: 2.5 inches
--Allentown: 2.3 inches

Delaware

--New Castle: 2.6 inches
--Newark: 2.3 inches
--Wilmington: 2.3 inches

Maryland

--Parkton: 2.6 inches
--Pimlico, a Baltimore neighborhood: 1.2 inches

Latest Stories

Winter Weather Advisory In Effect As First Snow Of 2012 Hits Tri-State Area
CBS NEW YORK

First Storm Of The Season Causes Spinouts And Fender Benders Across The Region
CBS PHILLY

It’s Snow Time: The Storm Has Begun
CBS BOSTON

YouTube Videos

Strong Storms Across Southeast Today, Florida Not Affected!

Localized Strong Storms Threatening the South
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Strong Pacific Jet Fires Series of Wet, Windy (milder) systems into PNW, Arctic Air Gone So All Rain For Seattle

While arctic air retreats back up into Canada, a strong Pacific jet will hurl a series of storms into Washington, Oregon bringing heavy low-elevation rains and heavy mountains snows. Wind will also be a feature.

Parade of Storminess Continues in the Pacific Northwest
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Winds from Seattle Snowstorm Fuel Reno Wildfire
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Ocean-Effect Snowfall In Boston, MA on Thursday, January 19, 2012

Here are a couple of cool videos from my friend Eli showing Boston's ocean-effect snow showers in a near cloudless sky on Thursday.

Want to see frequent weather-related videos from Boston? Subscribe to Eli's YouTube Channel

Australia Latest

Storms ease across Perth, Sunshine Returns!

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 85° at Harlingen, TX
LOW: -27° at Embarrass, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTERMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 56° (13.5°C) at Otterbourne Water Works (Hampshire)
LOW: 34° (1.2°C) at Aviemore (Highland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 48°
LOW: 38°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Major Winter Storm Takes Aim From Chicago to NYC with 3-6 inches widely.

2012-01-20T16:59:00.002Z

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NEW LONG RANGE VIDEO AVAILABLE (SCROLL DOWN)

Today's Weather Headlines

Europe Latest

Very windy and at times wet weekend in store for UK-Ireland

Through tonight, you'll notice the rains easing, especially northern areas as a front which brought today's rainfall to many areas sweeps east out into the Northg Sea, eventually bringing wet and eventually blustery conditions to the Low Countries.

While skies clear of rain tonight over Ireland and the UK, winds pick up and will blow strongly out of the west throughout this weekend. While 35-60 mph gusts may impact anywhere with highest winds along west facing coasts, it's up over the Highlands and far north of Scotland where winds not only blow at gale-force with gusts potentially reaching 80 mph in exposed areas but temps will be coolest here and if there's not frequent rain showers blown in on this howlling wind, snow may be an issue, even at lower levels making for treacherous driving conditions.

A slushy covering of wet snow was on the ground just 20 minutes south of Glasgow

Snowy Lesmahagow, South Lanarkshire at 2.50am this morning

(Photo courtesy of Mark Vogan)

Though sleet and rain impacted most low lying areas early this morning with sleet falling heavily here at my house, I headed down the M74 at 1.30am this morning only to be greeted by snow/slush covered roads just as the motorway begins the climb up into the northern flank of the Southern Uplands. My first drop was at Stonehouse where the road was snow and slush covered. Interestingly, once I headed beyond Blackwood and Lesmahagow where elevation isn't particularly significant, perhaps 500-800 feet above sea level, it was here where the snow was worst, lying to a depth of roughly a half to 1 inch.

Ice was in fact more of an issue due to frequent showers followed by clear spells, cold ground and air temp near freezing. It was the perfect combination for black ice and there was plenty of it this morning. Many accidents were attributed to ice this morning across many parts of Scotland.

Long Range Latest

Hemispheric & Europe Pattern showing signs of coming round to my ideas issued back on Christmas Day

SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK MAY IMPACT MULTIPLE MID-LATITUDE AREAS IN FEBRUARY 2012

STRONG POSITIVE AO/NAO FOR SUSTAINED PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY STRONG STRAT WARMING AND POTENTIALLY STRONG NEGATIVE AO/NAO MAY BRING MAJOR ISSUES ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE DURING FEBRUARY

Given the persistency in models TANKING the AO and NAO from Jan 26 onwards combined with a strong stratospheric warming event over top of the pole and the shear persistency in a strong positive AO/NAO during December suggests not only a colder period looming for N.A, Europ, Asia, but I believe we're heading for a significant and tough next 30-day period of winter.

I predict, that during February A MAJOR, POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING ARCTIC OUTBREAK will impact a large portion of the USA while the UK, as forecasted way back in summer, may take a run at the severity of cold experienced last year with heavy snows laying down a near nationwide blanket of snow which could arrive before January is out, this I believe could be followed an an arctic high and significant cold spell.

Keep in mind folks that although winter's worst was in late November and throughout December last year, winter was done for the season afterwards. Like I've stated previously, 2009-10 was a worse winter than last year despite a much colder period. how? though the worst was seen between Dec 18-Jan 10 in 09-10, we saw repeat heavy snow and cold spells during Feb-March which made for a worse winter when combining the three meteorological winter months (Dec-Feb).

Reasons for my bold for cold forecast!

We've seen a modest strat warming event which allowed weakening westerlies and the release of arctic air into the USA, eastern Europe and eastern Asia but this, albeit a much colder outbreak than models anticipated was restricted by a weak 'negative' AO and a barely neutral NAO. Basically, the full potential was far from met given the amount of time this arctic air has been allowed to build, however. latest modelling for the 10mb strat levels shows full warming at 10mb over the pole. (see graphic below)

Note the weak warming with lots of blue either side. However, notice the full warming at the end of this chart!

This tells me the arctic reservoir is set to spill southwards whilst blocking highs reach and replace this frigid air over the pole. What backs this idea up?

Note the below AO/NAO charts BOTH show a tanking deep into negative territory!

Charts courtesy of policlimate.com

US Latest

2-8 inch swath of snow to fall from Iowa to Massachussetts, including NYC, possibly Philly

The same system which caused havoc in parts of the Pacific Northwest in recent days including record snows followed by an ice storm in the Seattle area is now pressing east into the Ohio Valley. Although it's not the strongest of systems, what it has is a substantial reservoir of very cold, arctic air to tap to it's north and mild, moist air to it's south and between the two, a significant corridor of 3-6 inch snows will bring plenty of travel problems from Chicago through Detroit, Cleveland all the way to NYC and Boston, perhaps dropping a few inches across Philadelphia too.

I guess the lack of proper winter weather during December and early January will make this seem a bigger deal than say this same event occuring at this time last year, given what the front part of winter was like across this region last year. It will be very welcome indeed for those snow lovers out there that's for sure.

Stories

280 flights canceled as airports brace for snowstorm that could bring more than 6 inches
CHICAGO TRIBUNE

Snow for Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, NYC, Boston
ACCUWEATHER.COM

No Changes on Friday-Saturday Storm
FIRSTHANDWEATHER

Snowstorm for NYC, Hartford, Boston and Others
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Winter Storm Targets Midwest and Northeast
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Another very cold start across N. Plains, Midwest

Canada Latest

Big Storm shuts down Newfoundland schools, Arctic air holds firm nationwide

Heavy snow prompts school closures in Newfoundland
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Asia Latest

Tokyo sees first snowfall of winter 2011-12

Tokyo area hit with season's first snowfall
THE MAINICHE DAILY NEWS

Australia Latest

Plenty of active weather across Australia

Africa Latest

Rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Funso to get close to Mozambique bringing further flooding rains, strong winds

More rain for Mozambique
BBC

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 88° at McAllen, TX
LOW: -27° at Cook, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 53° (11.5°C) at Exeter Airport (Devon)
LOW: 30° (-1°C) at Leuchers (Fife)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 47°
LOW: 31°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Cold northwesterly flow blows wintry showers across Scotland, perhaps elsewhere across UK later today, First heavy, record breaking snow and now ice storm for Seattle

2012-01-19T16:10:00.002Z

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Today's Weather Headlines

Europe & Long Range Latest

Cold northwesterly flow blows wintry showers over Scotland, perhaps elsewhere across UK later today

Slush on my attic windows this afternoon looking out over the snowcovered Campsie Fells (Image courtesy of Mark Vogan

Although perhaps not UK-wide, nor barbarically cold, the pattern for the period from late this week and through the weekend I had been banging on about for the best part of two weeks now has at least showed some sort of truth. Temps have steadily fallen through today with the wind growing ever more chillier. Showers which have been fast and frequent from a west, northwest direction have also been very snowy across the Highlands, however, later this afternoon, precipitation has been turning more wintry with lower elevations of the Central Belt, such as the Glasgow area having endured a beating from lively hailshowers which I myself was caught out in whilst trying to reload, wash and fuel my truck for my next shift tomorrow morning, wasn't pleasant!. When I drove home, I was greeted to a white blanet in front of me which was the Campsie Hills, Lennoxtown itself saw an ever so light coating on grassy surfaces as well as on cars.

Though, I myself have mixed feelings about this weekend, I can safely say, that I got some of this forecast correct even though many scoffed at a cold forecast in the backdrop of warmer and warmer model runs. It has been a winter of tough forecasting, testing even the brilliant, world class long range forecasters to the limit in this changing climate in which we live. The normally obvious, major players in the meteorologist tick list haven't been playing ball and with the collapsing of the La Nina, the strongly positive AO/NAO and now sharp flip to generally negative, has meant it very difficult to forecast timings of large-scale pattern changes, the return of winter to the mid-latitudes following a near hemisphere-wide warm autumn and early winter.

As for our weather here, well tonight may be interesting. If you live anywhere in Scotland, down at low levels even, don't be surprised if it snows where you are tonight. Yes, more showers will pile in in areas and with temps continuing to fall away, snow is quite possible.

In order for me to be happier and I certainly was this afternoon when I saw the snow, I would like to see some surprise dustings or coatings across lower level parts of England and Wales, even Ireland to justify some sort of victory in at least the late week snowfall I had expected and certainly the return to colder weather which was originally outlined by me back at least 10 days ago.

US Latest

Arctic Core Shifts Eastwards Bringing Midwest Their Coldest Start Yet

Arctic cold as well as the major winter storm which pasted Seattle is all moving eastwards, set to impact Midwest and East next!

Arctic core was hundreds of miles to the west but Saranac Lake, NY still fell to near 20 below zero this morning!

Though the core of arctic air covered the the Dakotas and Minnesota, the chill Northeasterners awoke to this morning was not to be scoffed at with lows from Philadelphia up through Trenton, Newark to NYC falloing to around 20 degrees with wind chills averaging the low teens while Hartford fell to at least 16 degrees, Boston to 17. Berlin, NH dipped to at least 8 below zero while it hit a frigid 18 below zero at least at the well know icebox of Saranac Lake tucked deep within the Adirondacks of NY.

Following Seattle's record-breaking 6.8 inches of snow yesterday, Icing is now causing even bigger problems now

Checkout this cool picture of the recently fallen deep snow, now frozen solid, like icing on a birthday cake thanks to freezing rain in Seattle area. Thanks to Chris @Silv3rRT for permission to use his photo

Ice storm creating treacherous conditions
SEATTLE TIMES

Ice on Top of Record Snow Causing Nightmares in Seattle
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Corridor from S. Minnesota/N Iowa to Mass including the cities of Chicago, Detroit, Scranton, Albany to Boston under the snow gun next

Snow for Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, NYC, Boston
ACCUWEATHER.COM

NYC, New England Sneaky Snow Thursday Night
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Snowstorm could dump more than 6 inches Friday
CHICAGO TRIBUNE

What Weather is Next for Washington, Oregon?
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Canada Latest

Winter in full charge of Canada now following unseasonable warmth

Sudden snow impacts visibility in Ontario
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Canada's Wildest Winter Storms
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Africa Latest

South Africa Struck By Floods

Australia Latest

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 84° at Dryden, TX
LOW: -28° at Park Rapids, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 55° (12.5°C) at Exeter (Devon)
LOW: 32° (-0.2°C) at Fyvie Castle (Aberdeenshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 42°
LOW: 33°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Frigid Arctic Air Freezes Canada, N. USA, Potentially Historic Snowstorm For Seattle

2012-01-18T17:01:00.003Z

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Today's Weather Headlines

Europe & Long Range Latest

Although it has been a winter of frustration when it comes to forecasting with a very up and down nature, it does however appear to look more promising from next week onwards with regards to a more noteworthy NEGATIVE AO/NAO which would suggest not only plenty of winter for the mid-latitudes of North America, Asia and Europe but WESTERN Europe could well get in on some of the action if we get a negative NAO. Multiple models show a blocking high developing over Greenland and a turn to colder from Jan 26th onwards.

Here's hoping!

US Latest

Brutal Cold Across Northern Rockies and Plains

As expected way back at this time last week. The frigid arctic air has arrived stronger than what the models anticipated, unable to see just how cold that low level arctic air would be.

Through today, we're seeing little warming over the N. Rockies and Plains with temps in Billings actually still falling, now at -10 amazingly! Some locales today won't reach -15 degrees with wind chills stuck in the 30s and 40s below zero. Exposed flesh can freeze in minutes at these levels so use real caution outdoors through today.

Tonight will see the brutal chill move eastwards and that means, Minneapolis will drop below zero for the first time this season. We may see a low by morning near -10 degrees there and highs tomorrow may struggle to reach 0.

As you can see from the above map, there is little warming going on across Montana and the Dakotas this afternoon.

Today's forecast high's across the N. Rockies.

Tonight's forecast lows across the N. Plains

High Impact & Major Winter Storm To Cover Wide Areas Of The Pacific Northwest Shortly!
FIRSTHANDWEATHER

Seattle: Winter's Worth of Snow in One Day
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Seattle Snow

City Streets Deserted as NW Storm Peaks
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

VIDEO: Ingredients for a Historic Snow

ACCUWEATHER.COM

Northwest Snowstorms to Reach Midwest, East, California
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Cold Winds, Snow Showers Return to the Northeast
ACCUWEATHER.COM

High Winds Target Eastern Lakes, Central Appalachians
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Canada Latest

Western, central Canada shivers in widespread -30s C!

Frigid Calgary, AB

(Photo courtesy of Calgary Herald)

For letter carriers, bylaw officers, baby it’s cold outside
EDMONTON JOURNAL

Five schools close in Airdrie, Cochrane as wind chill warnings hit Alberta
CALGARY HERALD

Deep freeze engulfs Saskatoon
THE STAR PHOENIX

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 82° at Fort Lauderdale, FL
LOW: -33° at Gold Butte, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 57° (13.9°C) at Exeter Airport (Devon)
LOW: 24° (-4.2°C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 50°
LOW: 39°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Brutal Cold, Historic Snowstorms Impact North America, Japan

2012-01-17T16:48:00.001Z

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SINCERE APPOLOGIES FOR THE NO-POST TODAY. I HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO ACCESS THIS PAGE ALL DAY...

Today's Weather Headlines

US Latest

Brutal Arctic Blast Strikes N Rockies and Plains While Seattle Endures Historic Snowfall

Seattle: Biggest Snowstorm in Decades Begins
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Northwest Snowstorms to Reach Midwest, East, California
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Seattle Under Unusual Snow Gun

History of Great Seattle Snowstorms
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Ranking	Date	Amount
1	Jan. 5-9, 1880	Est. 36.0" with 6-foot drifts
2	Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 1916	33.4"
3	Jan. 26-31, 1969	30.7"
4	Jan. 12-15, 1950	26.8"
5	Dec. 23-27, 1965	14.9"
6	Dec. 30-31, 1968	13.0"
7	Jan. 23-26, 1972	12.6"
8	Jan. 25-26, 1950	12.4"
9	Dec. 26-27, 1974	9.8"
10	Nov. 20-21, 1985	9.4"
11	Nov. 27, 1985	7.6"

Courtesy of AccuWeather

Canada Latest

Frigid Air Blankets Western, Central Canada

Staying safe in freezing conditions across the Prairies
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Another wintery blast hits Quebec
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Europe Latest

FULL EUROPE UPDATE: TOMORROW

Asia Latest

Record Snowfall Hits Northern Japan

Record snow fall sweeps northern Japan
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Record snow falls in Japan
BBC

Australia Latest

Flood Warnings Issued For East, Hot Weather Elsewhere, Summertime in Australia

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 89° at McAllen, TX
LOW: -19° at Dunkrik, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 53° (11.4°C) at Plymouth (Devon)
LOW: 17° (-8.1°C) at South Newington (Oxfordshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 43°
LOW: 32°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

More Snow For Vancouver, Seattle & Portland, Brutal Cold Diving soiuth through North America/eastern Europe This Week

2012-01-16T15:40:00.000Z

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Today's Weather Headlines

Europe & Long Range Latest

Cold Grows In East While Milder, Atlantic Air Returns to West But By This Weekend, It's The Opposite!

Daytime highs from Russia (as far south as Turkey) across to west Germany will see highs between -6 (21F) and -10C (14F) this week! Near record lows possible.
(From Facebook)

Greece: Cold front brings snow, sub-zero temperatures
EXPRESS.GR

The snow comes to Spain, traffic and weather warnings have been issued
TYPICALLY SPANISH

Winter snow boost to ski centres in Europe
BBC

Blocking Pattern Looking Good for February!

These are two of the latest charts off Dr Ryan Maue's site.. policlimate.com which clearly show the downward trend since Christmas of both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Two key indicators for not only cold across the mid-latitudes but for cold pool development and persistence over eastern North America and Western Europe. Both show a negative phase from around Jan 26. onwards and this along with models show the re-release of Arctic air following the next 7-10 day cold period followed by brief warming. Blocking over Greenland is looking more likely into February and may mean the coldest month for most.

US Latest

Lots of Winter Excitment This Week Before Warmth Returns Briefly

Cold start yet again for Northeast but Northwest into Plains is set to see harsh Arctic Blast in coming days

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New Cold Wave, More Snow to Chicago, Detroit
ACCUWEATHER.COM

More Heavy Snowfalls Following Weekend Snows Across Seattle, Portland.. Foot Possible

Brace for icy roads across region; more snow is on the way
SEATTLE TIMES

Northwest Lowland Snowstorm Could Be Huge
KEN CLARK, ACCUWEATHER.COM

Brutal Blast Ahead for Northern States, Sets Up Fightzone in Midsection

More Wintry Winds, Cold Coming Midwest, East
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Ultra-Harsh Alaska Winter Prompting Fuel Shortages
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Canada Latest

Return to January For Western/Central Canada This Week

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Temperatures across Alberta are plummeting - some areas as low as -40 C by tonight. Environment Canada issued a wind chill warning for the northern parts of the province, with temperatures that feel like -40 or less developing tonight. (Vancouver Sun)

Albertans warned to bundle up as temperatures reach lows of -40C
THE VANCOUVER SUN

Frigid air invades the Prairies
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Cold, snow brings winter back to Edmonton
EDMONTON JOURNAL

Cold air drives electricity demands across Alberta
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Edmonton, Alberta (Courtesy of TWN)

Heavy Snow In Vancouver, BC

Snow flurries and bitter weather set to continue across Metro Vancouver
VANCOUVER SUN

More snow pushing into BC
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Yes, This is how warm Edmonton was at the start of January

Australia Latest

Plenty of Rain For Queensland, Hot Start to Australian Open

Australian Open 'Hotting Up' Tuesday
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Weather extremes in eastern Australia
BBC

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 85° at Harlingen, TX
LOW: -27° at Saranac Lake, NY

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 35°
LOW: 20° (Coldest so far)

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Classic Hemispheric Teleconnection Brings Bitter Cold to Europe, North America and Asia Through This Week

2012-01-15T17:03:00.001Z

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NEW LONG RANGE VIDEO BELOW....

Today's Weather Headlines

Europe & Long Range Latest

Arctic Chill Sweeps Europe This Week

Expert Discussion

Arctic air builds south from Scandinavia into eastern Europe all the way down to the eastern Mediterannean bringing sub-freezing days to many towns/cities through the Baltics, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Balkans early week, then Germany, Poland, the Alpine countries and even northern Italy and Greece also, eventually reaching eastern Belgium, Netherlands into France and then by next weekend, the UK and interior Ireland.

This is how I think this week will progress and change.

Look for milder air getting shoved northeastwards via a pumping ridge early this week over Ireland, UK and western mainland as this forces the eastern trough to deepen to the east and ingest colder and colder air down from Scandinavia. However, a trough out over the Atlantic will also fill with cold air from off Greenland, deepen and then get tapped by an Atlantic low which trecks across the ocean, pushing across the UK-Ireland and western mainland Thursday. Remember there's a split going on with the jet this week with a northern branch heading up over top of Scandinavia and another down over the Mediteranean. Once this system pushes into western Europe, a trough develops on the backside . As it does so, it's important not to focus on the trough development over the western continent with colder air spilling down into the UK-Ireland from the northwest but what's happen to the cold pool to the east. BTW, the cold deepens throughout this week, likely to be not seen by the models (cold air is heavier than warm, so it sinks and that nature of low-level cold air is often not seen by forecast models). The deepening of the trough in west raises heights further east and thus the cold pool lifts northwestwards up into Scandinvaia, but once a few lows within the trough slides east, then the door of that intensified cold ARCTIC air will be allowed to bleeds south into the UK-Ireland. The upper pattern between Monday-Tuesday and Friday-Saturday will have completely flipped, just like a seesaw with warming in east and cold in west, but what I think modelling may not pick up on until too late will be the dislodge of that Arctic chill from Scandinavia down into the UK-Ireland by Sunday, making for a major shock to the system for most.

US Latest

Very Cold Start Across Northeast, Warmth Crosses Country Ahead of Even Colder Arctic Blast Next Week

Temperature Roller Coaster to Affect the East This Week
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Heavy Snow For Seattle, Washington?

The infusion of both Arctic air drawing down from Canada and an incoming moist Pacific system, begs the question, will Seattle, Portland get in on some heavy snow? It appears they may well do.

Ingredients on Deck for Historic Seattle Snowstorm
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Seattle Snow, Storms to Return to the West
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Canada Latest

Good Old Fashioned Arctic Blast Coming For Much of Canada This Week

Prairies brace for plunging temperatures
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Very cold late morning across east but coming days will moderate while it will turn colder and colder in west

Looking at Arctic Blast This Upcoming Week, How Cold?

The arctic hound is roaring southwards and with a system treking eastwards around the southern boundary of the the frigid arctic pool, snowfall is breaking out across the southern provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan bringing anywhere from a few cm's to Vancouver to between 6-20cm further east. Over the next 36 hours, this system will be off to the east and therefore the door to the arctic opens up. Highs in both Calgary and Edmonton will struggle by midweek to reach -30C (-22F) while nights under clear skies and light winds may approach -38C in Calgary and -40C in Edmonton, the intensity of the low level arctic air is likely underplayed by some models and thus it could well be even colder air sweeping south than many realise.

Edmonton Forecast

Calgary Forecast

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 78° at Harlingen, TX
LOW: -24° at Watertown, NY

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 48° (8.8°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 15 (-9.4C) at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 34°
LOW: 23°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Arctic Air That Will Shiver and Shock Both Northeast Sunday and Plains Next Week! Snow in Alexandria, Egypt

2012-01-14T15:08:00.003Z

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Today's Weather Headlines

US Latest

Arctic Air That Will Shiver and Shock Both Northeast Sunday and Plains Next Week!

While an arctic high drifts from Ontario, Quebec into New England during Sunday holding highs throughout the I-95 corridor in the 20s, despite a lack of snowcover, it's possible that Boston dips to near 0 degrees by Monday morning while New York City nears 10 degrees and Philly, Baltimore and DC dips to between 11-14 degrees (F).

Mark's Forecast lows tonight (F)

Caribou, ME -15
Boston, MA 10
Albany, NY 14
Newark, NJ 18
Trenton, NJ 22
Philadelphia, PA 23
Baltimore, MD 24
Washington, DC 25

Great Lakes Wide Open for More Snow
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Arctic Blast Heading for Northern Rockies and Plains
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Seattle Snow, Storms to Return to the West
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Canada Latest

Potentially Historic Temperature Flip To Occur Across Western Canada With Edmonton Dipping Near -40C By Next Week

It's going to be incredible! Following a balmy past few weeks across large portions of Canada and many out enjoying a round of golf in early January. Next week may be one of the greatest turnaround's in winter not seen in many a year across the west

Very cold night ahead for Eastern Canada as Arctic high pressure rolls in... Expected Low: Toronto 0F (18C), Ottawa -11F (-24C), Montreal -9F (-23C), Quebec City -14F (-26C)

See the Facebook page for frequent Canadian weather updates!

European Upper Level Pattern for next Wednesday

Prairies brace for plunging temperatures
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Messy system hits Ontario
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Africa Latest

Snow Falls, Accummulates in Alexandria, Egypt

Europe Latest

The Cold Is Coming, Firstly To East, Then West Before Moderating

Many cities across Europe will struggle or fail to reach freezing by mid next week

The european continues to show the building of a Scandinavia/eastern Europe trough which grows both larger and colder into early and mid next week, I completely agree with this and have been on board this idea for about a week now and forecasted this largescale hemisphere-wide flip to colder for around the 15th Jan onwards back on Christmas Day.

While a benign start to next week kicks in for the western continent including Ireland, UK and Low countries, watch as it turns stormier over southern Europe as the jet sweeps down over the northern shore of the Med with lots of very cold air reaching as far south as north Italy, Greece, the Balkans and Turkey. It's here the Atlantic storm track will be while covering much of the heart of the continent will be very cold ARCTIC air which will rule most of the major eastern and central European cities with subfreezing days and bitter nights. We could see a decent snowfall as the polar front sweeps south.

By late week, the models keep showing a westward migration of the cold pool with meets a trough which slides into the UK-Ireland from the Atlantic. The very cold air leaves eastern Europe and transfers back north into Scandinavia and this cold then bleeds SW into the trough which covers the west. Daytime highs from Inverness to Birmingham may struggle to reach 0C/32F by this weekend and if skies are clear, winds light and perhaps some snowcovered ground. I suspect many towns and cities across the UK and even inland areas of Ireland may dip to -6C or colder. Sheltered, rural areas may reach -10C or lower.

Milder air returns to much of the Mid-latitudes AFTER next weekend but stronger, longer cold spell may be looming

Once we enter the following week I do expect moderation in the chill in response to a more positive NAO and the retreat of cold overall in the hemispheric pattern. This due to a recent cooling of the stratosphere. However, myself along with other much more skilled long range forecasters agree to a return to colder with the restablishment of the teleconnection into February. A stronger stratospheric warming event is currently in progress and if one wants to go by some of the long range models, a dramatic flip to strongly negatiove AO and even NAO shows up for later down the road. What does this mean? A blocking high builds over the N. Atlantic and Greenland at the same time the door of the Arctic reopens again to the mid-latitudes. In laymens terms, that means a long, stronger cold spell for perhaps the closing days of January lasting into a good part of February. Exact timing is difficult to say at this time.

Cruise Ship Runs Aground of Italy's Tuscany Coast

Officials: 3 killed, scores missing after cruise ship runs aground off Italy
CNN

Italian Cruise Ship Runs Aground, 4,200 Passengers Evacuated
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Abnormally Powerful Atlantic Jet Stream Impacts Trans-Atlantic Air Travel

Strong Headwinds Impact Transatlantic Flights
THE WEATHER CHANNEL

Strong winds slam airline's cost-cutting
CBS NEWS

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 78° at Ocotillo Wells, CA
LOW: -13° at Crane Lake, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 50° (9.7°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 19° (-7.4°C) at Benson (Oxfordshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 41°
LOW: 28°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Winter hits back at USA hard, next week will be a lot colder, Europe joins in with the fun!

2012-01-13T17:09:00.002Z

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In Today's Blog

Latest US Discussion @ #USA
Arctic Air Pushes In Behind Midwest Snowstorm With Cold and Wind For Northeast, Looking Colder Next Week

Latest Long Range Discussion #LONG RANGE
Settled High Brings Sunny/Crisp Days, Frosty Nights But Arctic Air Pool Expands Across Eastern-Central Europe This Weekend Onwards

Latest Weather from India-Sub-Continent @ #INDIA-SUB CONT
Latest Indian-Sub Continental Weather News from Rajesh Kapadia

Today's Weather Headlines

Europe & Long Range Latest

Settled High Brings Sunny/Crisp Days, Frosty Nights But Arctic Air Pool Expands Across Eastern-Central Europe This Weekend Onwards

Upper pattern for Sat 14

This weekend will remain very pleasant indeed with bright, mostly sunny skies by day which bring glorious, crisp winter sunshine and temps more suited to January at 4-7C across the UK and Ireland. This skies give way to stars shinning bright at night and with little wind to hold down the warmth generated by day, will allow radiational cooling and thus temps dipping below freezing and frost formation. This is classic and nothing particularly cold.

It appears a little cloudier conditions may drift into the northern UK through the weekend with still frosty, cool nights but should remain sunnier further south throughout the weekend and even into early next week thanks to that high. READ MORE!

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Cold and frosty weekend ahead
BBC

US Latest

Winter hits back at US hard, next week will be harder!

While Chicago, IL may get near zero night, it may get near zero in Boston Sun night! See #USA for details

A bicyclist rides up Elston Avenue in Chicago. (Courtesy Chicago Tribune)

Chicago Snowstorm, More Than Two Feet For Some in Midwest
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Storm warning canceled early, but many commuters still late
CHICAGO TRIBUNE

Lake-Effect Snow Will Pile High
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Windy and Lake-Effect Gets Cranking Across the Northeast!

NEW: Billboard Collapses Near BQE; Wind Advisory In Effect For Entire Tri-State Area
CBS NEW YORK

High Winds from I-75 to I-95
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Northeast: Accidents, Cut Power from Snow, Freeze, Wind
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Today's Upper Pattern off ECMWF model

Snow Possible in Chicago Next Week
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Canada Latest

Messy Ice and Snow Conditions Across Parts of Canada, Turning Colder and Gone Is The Mild Air

Montreal, QC collects 15cm of heavy snow while icy conditions continue to cause problems across Ontario

Nasty traffic snarled Hwy 40 in Montreal, QC last night (Courtesy of David Pearson/The Weather Network)

Heavy snow piles up in Quebec
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Road conditions deteriorate in Ontario
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Toronto issues extreme cold weather alert
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Australia Latest

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 83° at Lake Forest, CA
LOW: -15° at Halloch, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 51° (10.4°C) at Isles of Scilly
LOW: 23 (-5.1°C) at Benson (Oxfordshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 35°
LOW: 26°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Major Snowstorm Currently Producing A Near Whiteout Across Midwest

2012-01-12T17:24:00.002Z

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In Tomorrow's Post I shall Have A Detailed Write-Up & Video On Next Week's Potential Arctic Cold For Both Europe & North America, Stay Tuned!

Today's Weather Headlines

US Latest

Major Snowstorm Currently Producing A Near Whiteout Across Midwest

FUN AND GAMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST AS THE FIRST MAJOR SNOWSTORM BEARS DOWN, EXPECTED TO CAUSE EVENING COMMUTE HEADACHES

Snowfall Totals in the Midwest as of 11:30 a.m. ET Thursday:

-Gile, Wis.: 6.3 inches
-Saxon, Wis.: 5.0 inches
-1 mile northeast Mohawk, Mich.: 4.7 inches
-2 miles northeast Stoddard, Wis.: 4.6 inches
-Mellen, Wis.: 4.0 inches

Snowfall Totals in the Northeast as of 11:30 a.m. ET Thursday:

-Stratford, N.Y.: 8.0 inches
-Fishhouse, N.Y.: 6.0 inches
-Johnstown, N.Y.: 6.0 inches
-Lenox, Mass.: 3.0 inches
-New Hartford, Conn.: 2.0 inches

Information Courtesy of AccuWeather
NEW: Just hours into storm and 'we've surpassed what we had all season'
CHICAGO TRIBUNE

VIDEO: Travel to Deteriorate Quickly in Chicago
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Whiteout with Snow Hitting Midwest, Northeast
ACCUWEATHER.COM

More Lake-Effect Snow Friday into Saturday
ACCUWEATHER.COM

LATEST FROM THE NETWORKS/NEWSPAPERS

Hundreds of flights canceled at Midway, O'Hare because of storm
CHICAGO TRIBUNE

Overnight Tornado Strikes North Carolina

Severe weather leaves 5 injured in North Carolina
CNN

Tornado Hits Rutherford County, NC Near Facebook
JESSE FERRELL'S BLOG, ACCUWEATHER.COM

Anchorage Breaks Snow Record

Snow-to-date total breaks record for Anchorage
ANCHORAGE DAILY NEWS

Canada Latest

Arctic Air to Shiver Canada

Winter returns to Ontario
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Accident closed the 401 between Joyceville Road and Highway 15 Thursday morning (Courtesy of TWN)

Cold temperatures moving into the Prairies
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Winter storm impacts travel, closes schools in Atlantic Canada
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Asia Latest
Huge Snowstorm Dumps 2 Month of Snow In 12 Hours Over Russia!

Snowstorm in Russia
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Snowstorm Shuts Down Tatar Capital
RADIO FREE EUROPE

Australia Latest

Cyclone Heidi Roars Into Port Hedland, WA

Cyclone Heidi crosses Pilbara coast, residents on red alert
PERTH NOW

Cyclone Heidi hits land in Pilbara region
ADELAIDE NOW

Europe Latest

Calm, pleasant weekend on tap for west while cold begins to drain into Scandinavia and will cover entire east building west next week

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 81° at Okeechobee, FL
LOW: -27° at West Yellowstone, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 57° (13.7°C) at Usk No. 2
LOW: 31° (-0.8°C) at Exeter Airport

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 49°
LOW: 39°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark